Met Office says your next 72 hours turn wet: will 17–18c sunshine fade before rain sweeps in?

A bright spell lifts late-September moods, yet unsettled skies to the west are already reshaping what your weekend looks like.

After two settled days, forecasters expect rain to push in from the Atlantic and linger. The Met Office says Hurricane Gabrielle is not the culprit, even as its distant remnants tug on the wider weather pattern.

What the Met Office says

Rain is set to arrive from the west on Friday night, then move slowly east across Saturday and Sunday. The signal points to a wet weekend rather than a brief passing shower. Forecasters stress that the tropical system dubbed Hurricane Gabrielle will not drive the UK rainfall. Its leftovers track well to the south, skirting the Azores before arcing towards the Bay of Biscay.

Expect a broadly wet weekend across the UK, with rain arriving from the west late Friday and persisting into Sunday.

While Gabrielle does not power the rain, its evolution matters. As it weakens over the open Atlantic and slips towards Biscay, it can subtly adjust the jet stream and the pace of the frontal band. That means the timing, and how stubborn the rain becomes over different regions, may shift by several hours.

The weekend timeline at a glance

• Wednesday: Largely fine and sunny nationwide with temperatures near the seasonal norm of 17–18c.
• Thursday: Another pleasant day for most; cloud thickens in the west late on, winds remain modest.
• Friday: Dry for many through daylight hours; rain reaches western coasts and hills by evening and night.
• Saturday: The main band pushes east, bringing steady outbreaks, low cloud and hill fog in places.
• Sunday: Further rain at times; some breaks are possible between pulses as the band fragments in places.

Why Hurricane Gabrielle is not the culprit

Gabrielle’s path keeps the storm core far from British shores. Forecast tracks take the system near the Azores on Friday, then east towards the Bay of Biscay off France and northern Spain. That route places its strongest winds and direct impacts hundreds of miles south of the UK.

The UK rain stems from a mid-latitude frontal system tied to the Atlantic jet, not the hurricane’s circulation. Gabrielle’s decaying energy can still nudge the wider pattern, adding moisture to the broader air mass and slowing the front. Think of it as a distant tug on a conveyor belt rather than the belt itself.

Gabrielle’s remnants sit to the south; they may influence the tempo of the rain, but they are not driving it.

How distant storms can slow a UK rain band

When a former hurricane drifts into the mid-latitudes, it often injects warmth and moisture into the jet stream. That can sharpen temperature contrasts and alter the angle of approach of Atlantic fronts. The result in the UK can be a slower-moving rain band, with steadier, more persistent rainfall rather than quick bursts. The effect is indirect and depends on distance, structure and how the ex-storm interacts with nearby pressure systems.

What this means for you

Many weekend plans will still go ahead, but conditions tilt damp. Roads can turn greasy after dry spells. Drains may struggle during the heaviest bursts. Sports fixtures might face delays on saturated pitches, and hill walks will need extra care.

• Commuters and drivers: Allow extra time. Expect spray, surface water in dips, and reduced visibility under heavier pulses.
• Event organisers: Prepare rain covers and track conditions. Build in flexibility for slower-moving bands.
• Walkers and cyclists: Pack waterproofs. Watch for gusts on exposed ridges and low cloud on moors and fells.
• Gardeners and farmers: The ground gets a useful top-up. Field access could be sticky where soils sit near saturation.

Regional picture

Western areas take the first hit as the frontal edge reaches coastlines from Cornwall and Pembrokeshire to County Londonderry and the Hebrides. The rain then edges inland through Saturday, turning many central and eastern districts damp later. Upland spots catch cloud on windward slopes, so expect murky conditions over Welsh hills, Cumbrian fells and parts of the Highlands when the band is overhead. Eastern counties see the rain later but may also notice it lingering where the front stalls for a time.

Winds look manageable for most, with a fresh Atlantic breeze in the wettest zones and occasional stronger gusts around exposed headlands. This is typical autumn fare rather than disruptive gale force conditions.

Key facts at a glance

Travel and daily life

Public transport often runs to schedule in this pattern, but heavy rain can trigger speed restrictions on sections of the rail network, especially where leaf fall begins to reduce railhead grip. Airports typically operate as normal; allow for longer taxi times as ground operations slow in downpours. On the roads, watch for standing water near kerbs and on minor routes with blocked gutters. Cyclists should plan for splashback and brake earlier on wet rims.

Parents shuttling to weekend activities may want spare layers in the car. Football and rugby boots will need studs suitable for softer ground. Dog walkers should plan shorter loops when the main band arrives, then take longer stretches during any lulls.

How to plan the weekend

• Front-load outdoor errands on Thursday or early Friday when conditions stay fair.
• Keep a flexible slot on Saturday afternoon or Sunday morning for any drier interludes.
• Use sheltered routes for runs and cycles; save summits for a clearer day.
• Check local updates on the day for the latest position of the rain band.

Weather context: late-September patterns

Late September often pivots between settled high pressure and fresher Atlantic air. The shift usually brings a classic conveyor of fronts from the southwest. Temperatures around 17–18c fit the seasonal picture, with nights a little cooler under any clear spells ahead of the rain. Sea temperatures remain relatively mild, which can keep coastal air feeling slightly less crisp than inland.

Gabrielle’s route and the Bay of Biscay

The Bay of Biscay sits between western France and northern Spain. Ex-tropical systems commonly pass near or over it after turning east. By that stage they have shed hurricane traits and behave like ordinary low-pressure systems, though they can still carry quite a lot of moisture. Because Gabrielle stays near Biscay, it steers clear of the UK’s main weather engine this weekend, while subtly modulating the timing of our fronts from a distance.

The headline remains steady: fine midweek weather, then a turn to widespread rain from late Friday into Sunday, with Gabrielle staying well to the south.

For those planning hikes, camping or late-season festivals, consider a backup indoor segment and elevate tents or gear away from run-off channels. City residents might clear leaves from home drains before the rain sets in. Sailors along western coasts should watch for visibility reductions in rain bands and allow for a brisk onshore breeze as the front approaches.

If you are curious about the mechanics, try this simple mental model. Picture a wide ribbon of cloud stretched from the Atlantic towards Britain. A decaying storm over Biscay gives a gentle tug on the ribbon’s tail, slowing its progress in places. That is often enough to turn a few hours of rain into a day of on-and-off dampness, even though the storm itself never arrives here.