A shrinking economy, rising salaries and a restless workforce are reshaping choices for workers, employers and families across Aotearoa.
New Zealand will create two new residence pathways from mid-2026, pitching certainty to skilled migrants while businesses scramble to stem vacancies and economic drift. Ministers say the reset targets real gaps, not quick fixes, as departures hit new highs and employers fear stalled projects, longer waitlists and higher costs.
What changes and when
The government will open two distinct routes to residence, both designed to reward experience and steady earnings rather than short stops. The first route targets skilled roles that meet set experience and salary thresholds. The second focuses on trades and technical roles, with qualification, work experience and wage thresholds as the entry ticket.
Two residence pathways land from mid-2026: one for skilled professionals with experience and pay thresholds, one for trades and technicians with qualifications, experience and wage floors.
Economic growth minister Nicola Willis framed the move as a direct response to employers who say they cannot fill posts that underpin productivity and public services. Immigration minister Erica Stanford highlighted retention: many of the migrants likely to benefit already live and work in New Zealand under temporary visas, paying tax and holding down roles that have sat vacant for months.
Record departures sharpen the stakes
Stats NZ recorded a stark outflow between July 2024 and July 2025: 73,400 citizens left, while only 25,800 returned to live. That drain lands on an economy shrinking on key measures, and on sectors where training pipelines remain thin.
73,400 departures versus 25,800 returns over twelve months sets a hard backdrop for any workforce plan.
Ministers face a practical dilemma. Employers want certainty now; yet the new routes start in mid-2026. Infrastructure NZ urged an earlier switch-on, warning that delayed certainty risks lost contracts and longer delivery times on essential projects. Business New Zealand welcomed the direction, saying the pathways will help retain hard-won experience.
Two routes, different gates
| Pathway | Target roles | Core thresholds | Start | Main aim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skilled work experience | Professional and specialist roles | Relevant experience and salary thresholds | Mid-2026 | Retain experienced workers already contributing |
| Trades and technicians | Practical, non‑university pathways | Qualifications, work experience and wage thresholds | Mid-2026 | Address shortages in hands‑on industries |
The trades route signals respect for practical skills that do not run through university lecture halls. That matters for infrastructure, housing delivery and maintenance—areas where delays bite households and firms every day. The skilled route, by contrast, puts weight on experience and earnings, a nod to employers who have trained staff into company systems and want to lock in those gains.
Politics, pushback and the Australia question
Coalition partner New Zealand First split from the announcement, invoking the “agree to disagree” clause and labelling the plan an unfocused immigration proposal. Party leader and foreign minister Winston Peters warned that New Zealand risks acting as a training ground for Australia.
One in three New Zealand citizens who moved to Australia in 2024 was born overseas, a sign that mobile talent keeps moving.
The stepping‑stone concern runs like this: New Zealand admits a worker, invests in their skills and family, and then loses them across the Tasman once they gain experience and savings. Stats NZ figures show that 35% of New Zealand citizens who moved to Australia in 2024 were born outside New Zealand—people who already made one big move and could make another if incentives tilt that way.
Earlier shifts set the scene
These new pathways sit alongside a wider reset. In January, visitor visa rules shifted to attract remote workers and so‑called digital nomads, including influencers paid by overseas companies. In February, the Active Investor Plus, New Zealand’s “golden visa”, loosened its settings to lure high‑net‑worth residents. The mid‑2026 residence routes add a third pillar focused on long‑term workers filling defined gaps.
What employers can do now
Firms do not need to sit still until 2026. They can plan for retention, salary settings and qualification recognition today.
- Audit roles likely to qualify under either pathway and map staff to thresholds.
- Lock in pay bands that meet or exceed published wage floors where relevant.
- Support employees to document experience, qualifications and on‑the‑job competencies.
- Review training pipelines to reduce reliance on one visa type.
- Coordinate with industry bodies pushing for an earlier start date.
What migrants should consider
Workers already in New Zealand on temporary visas can make themselves stronger candidates by recording experience against job descriptions, securing letters that confirm duties and pay, and maintaining clean compliance histories. Tradespeople should gather apprenticeship records, competency certificates and site hours. Professionals should collate evidence of projects delivered and responsibilities held over time.
Two practical scenarios
A qualified electrician with five years’ experience and a full‑time job at a wage that meets the pathway’s floor can prepare a portfolio showing qualifications, site safety tickets and supervisory duties. A data analyst on a salary that meets the skilled threshold can gather performance reviews, proof of toolsets used and outcomes delivered for clients.
Wages, housing and growth
The government’s wager is simple: lift certainty for migrants who already add value, and firms can plan around them. That approach can raise retention and reduce churn, which helps productivity. Wage thresholds set a floor that protects against undercutting and drives training incentives for locals. There is a risk that delayed implementation extends shortages and keeps wages rising faster than output, feeding pressure on prices and rents.
Housing supply and infrastructure capacity will shape how smoothly any intake settles. Trades pathways point directly at these bottlenecks. If more builders, sparkies and technicians gain residence, project schedules can firm up and new capacity can arrive sooner. If the start date slips or thresholds narrow, employers may chase the same scarce hands for another year.
Numbers that matter
- 73,400 New Zealand citizens left between July 2024 and July 2025.
- 25,800 citizens returned to live during the same period.
- 35% of New Zealand citizens moving to Australia in 2024 were born overseas.
- Two residence routes begin in mid‑2026: skilled work experience, and trades and technicians.
Signals to watch before 2026
Employers will watch for detailed thresholds, assessment criteria and processing targets. Investors will watch whether the earlier visa changes lift capital inflows or remote‑work spending. Unions will track wage effects and training commitments for local workers. If GDP continues to contract, pressure will rise to bring the start date forward, or to broaden eligibility to stabilise headcount in critical services.
Added context for readers weighing a move
Residence offers stability that improves access to mortgages, career progression and school zoning. The trades route can shorten the path to supervising roles or contracting businesses, where margins rise with responsibility. For families, a predictable pathway reduces the risk of visa churn, which can stall careers and children’s schooling.
There are risks. A fast shift to residence can lock workers into roles that fit thresholds but do not match long‑term ambitions. Moving too early can affect portability if Australia remains the final destination. A staged plan—complete a qualification, pass a wage floor, then seek residence—can keep options open while meeting New Zealand’s rules.
The policy’s success will turn on clear thresholds, quick decisions and whether mid‑2026 arrives soon enough for employers under strain.
Mid‑2026? That’s an eternity in a shrinking economy. With 73,400 citizens already gone, why not phase in the pathways next quarter and set transparent processing targets now? Otherwise employers face stalled projects, higher costs, and more churn. Also, please publish draft salary bands and recognition rules early so migrants can prepare without guesswork—bureaucracry loves surprises.
We’re opening the residency doors—but do we have enough front doors? If housing lags, higher wages just get eaten by rent monsters.