An old speech, a new sports spectacle and bruised egos collide, leaving businesses and fans wondering what lands on their bills next.
Donald Trump says he will add a further 10% to tariffs on Canadian goods, a move he linked to an Ontario-backed advert that spliced a 1987 Ronald Reagan address. The decision lands as both leaders attend an Asean summit, and as the World Series amplifies the political theatre.
What changed on Saturday
Speaking while flying to Asia, the US president said he would increase the tariff burden on Canada by 10% “over and above” what importers currently pay. The White House did not release a legal notice or a product list, leaving traders to guess how and when the extra charge will bite.
Tariffs are paid by importers, not exporters, and costs can cascade through wholesale and retail prices.
Washington already applies a 35% headline levy on Canadian goods, although many products remain shielded by a free trade agreement. Sector-specific charges also exist: 50% on metals and 25% on automobiles. Trump framed the new 10% as a direct response to a Reagan-themed advert that aired in the run-up to the World Series.
How a Reagan advert lit the fuse
Ontario’s government ran an anti-tariff campaign quoting Reagan’s claim that tariffs “hurt every American”. The minute-long spot rearranged lines from his five-minute radio address without altering the words. The Ronald Reagan Foundation objected, arguing the edit was selective and unauthorised. Trump called the advert a “fraud” and demanded it be pulled “immediately”.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he would pause the campaign to reopen talks, yet allowed it to run over the World Series weekend between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Los Angeles Dodgers. He even traded playful social media barbs with California Governor Gavin Newsom, turning cross-border rivalry into a running gag about tariffs, maple syrup and wine.
Political theatre met prime-time sport, and trade policy moved with the crowd noise.
Ottawa’s response and the wider stakes
Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada stands ready to keep working on a deal that protects workers and families, while also stepping up trade diversification across Asia. He flagged an ambitious budget with “generational investments” and insisted Canada can negotiate with Washington and expand in Asean markets at the same time. Trade minister Dominic LeBlanc echoed the view that direct contact with the US remains the best way to make progress.
Three-quarters of Canadian exports go to the United States, with Ontario anchoring the country’s auto manufacturing.
Trump told reporters he has no plans to meet Carney in Malaysia. That leaves officials to grind through the detail as markets brace for fresh paperwork, price changes and potential retaliation.
What the 10% could mean in practice
The extra tariff raises two immediate questions: which goods, and how to calculate the uplift alongside existing sectoral rates. Trade lawyers will parse any formal notice for product codes and timing. Until then, companies face scenario planning.
Autos and metals
Cars and parts already attract a 25% levy. If the new 10% stacks on top, importers could face 35% at the border, squeezing margins in an industry built on just-in-time deliveries. Metals look even tighter at a 50% base rate. Adding 10% would push landed costs to levels that could reroute supply chains or pause orders.
Food and retail
Groceries and consumer goods may still flow under existing exemptions, but uncertainty alone can prompt suppliers to renegotiate. If the 10% reaches into categories that were previously spared, supermarkets and e‑commerce platforms may reprice quickly.
Illustrative tariff scenarios
The figures below show how rates could look if the 10% uplift applies in full. These are indicative until formal guidance lands.
| Sector | Existing levy | If +10% applies | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Automobiles | 25% | 35% | Higher dealer costs likely; model mix may shift |
| Metals | 50% | 60% | Fabricators may delay projects or seek substitutes |
| General goods | 35% (many exempt) | 45% (if applicable) | Coverage depends on free trade carve-outs |
How much could prices move
Price pass-through varies by competition, contracts and inventory. A car with a pre‑tariff import cost of $30,000 faces a $7,500 border charge at 25%. If the rate rises to 35%, the tariff becomes $10,500. Dealers can absorb a slice, but higher finance payments and fewer discounts often follow. For metals, a $1,000 tonne at 50% jumps to $1,500 before shipping and mark-up; at 60%, it reaches $1,600. Builders could see quotes revised mid-project.
Baseball, budgets and bargaining
The timing isn’t accidental. The World Series delivers an audience, and the Reagan advert used that stage. Trump seized on it to harden his stance, while Ford and Newsom swapped friendly jabs to blunt the edges. Meanwhile, Carney’s promise of a high-spend budget signals a domestic cushion if cross-border sales wobble, and a pivot to Asean trade points to hedging against US dependency.
What importers should do now
- Audit purchase orders for goods due to cross the border in the next 60 days.
- Ask brokers about staging shipments to lock in current rates where lawful.
- Model a 10–15% landed cost rise and stress‑test cash flow and credit lines.
- Revisit contracts for tariff‑sharing clauses and renegotiation triggers.
- Consider alternative sourcing in Mexico or domestic substitutes where feasible.
Why the advert matters beyond optics
Reagan remains a touchstone for Republicans, so using his words in a Canadian government spot cut close. The Reagan Foundation’s criticism further politicised the clip. In trade disputes, symbols can move faster than spreadsheets. The ad sparked a narrative about respect and representation, which in turn shaped the pace of talks and the president’s mood music.
Signals to watch next
Markets will look for a formal Federal Register notice, any product list from the US Trade Representative, and Canada’s tone on potential countermeasures. Supply chains will watch transit times at the border and the behaviour of freight rates. A drawn‑out fight could loft warehousing demand near Detroit and Windsor as firms stockpile key parts.
Extra context for readers
Tariffs work like a tax on the importer at the moment goods clear customs. Importers decide whether to absorb the hit, pass it to wholesalers, or raise shelf prices. Competitive sectors pass through less; concentrated sectors pass through more. Currency moves can cushion or amplify the pain: a weaker Canadian dollar lowers the foreign-currency cost, while a stronger US dollar raises Americans’ purchasing power and can mask part of the tariff at the till.
Small manufacturers can run a simple simulation: take last quarter’s average landed cost per unit, add 10% to the tariff line only, and rerun your gross margin. If margin falls below your break-even threshold, look at batch sizes, design tweaks to meet rules of origin, or duty drawback where you re-export finished goods. None of these options removes the shock, but each one can shave points off the final increase paid by customers.
Can someone clarify whether the extra 10% stacks on top of existing sector levies (e.g., autos 25% -> 35%, metals 50% -> 60%) or is it calculated differently? Without a Federal Register notice or HS codes, importers can’t price this. Are we looking at immediate effect or only upon publication?