Summer’s heat lingers in conversations as schools return and commuters watch the skies, wondering which jacket to grab.
The first half of September looks set to reset the mood after a searing season, with forecasters eyeing a cooler, changeable phase.
What the met office guidance points to
Hopes of an “Indian summer” topping 30C keep surfacing, yet the steer from forecasters is more grounded. Expect temperatures mostly in the low twenties Celsius, which is normal for early September. Any warmer interludes should be brief. The period from 4 to 13 September looks unsettled, with showers mixing with longer spells of rain. Some bursts could turn heavy with a chance of thunderstorms and strong winds, particularly across western areas exposed to Atlantic systems.
Headline signals: near- or slightly-below-average temperatures, short drier windows, and a changeable 4–13 September with showers or longer rain at times.
The tone differs sharply from the four heatwaves the UK endured this summer. Those hot snaps pushed fire risk and sent temperatures surging. A late-August blaze on the outskirts of London underscored how quickly conditions can escalate in heat. September, by contrast, points to fresher air and more cloud, punctuated by sunny breaks between bands of rain.
Will there be another heatwave?
No repeat of the 30c chatter for now
Speculation about a 30C comeback is common each year. Current projections do not back that for the first half of the month. Forecasters see the mercury sitting mostly around 18–22C by day, with cooler nights where skies clear. You may still feel warmth in sheltered spots, especially in the southeast for a day or two, but nothing like the widespread, prolonged heat that defined parts of June, July and August.
No broad heatwave is on the cards in early September; any warmer pulse should be short-lived and localised.
What to expect between 4 and 13 September
Think mixed skies, passing showers and the occasional soaking as frontal bands sweep through. Western hills could squeeze out more rain, while the east enjoys longer dry spells before the next system arrives. Where downpours align with warmer, humid air, thunderstorms may pop up, bringing sudden gusts and sharp rainfall. Winds strengthen around frontal passages, with the west and coastal fringes most exposed.
- Temperatures: often 18–22C in England and Wales; mid to high teens in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
- Rainfall: frequent showers, with occasional longer spells of rain; risk of heavy bursts and thunder in places.
- Wind: breeziest in the west and around rain bands; lighter between systems.
- Sunshine: bright spells between showers; the east and southeast may latch onto the longest sunny breaks.
- Nights: cooler where skies clear, bringing a fresh feel by morning.
The regional picture
| Region | Likely pattern | Daytime temperatures |
|---|---|---|
| Northwest England and west Wales | Showers frequent, occasional longer rain; breezy at times | 16–20C |
| Southwest England | Changeable with bands of rain; brighter slots between systems | 18–21C |
| London and the southeast | More sheltered; drier windows and sunny spells, a short warm uptick possible | 19–23C |
| Midlands and eastern England | Mixed; some decent dry periods before showers return | 18–22C |
| Scotland | Widely changeable; western Highlands wettest, east sees brighter breaks | 14–19C |
| Northern Ireland | Blustery showers with occasional longer rain, some sunny intervals | 15–19C |
What this means for your week
Plan for quick shifts. Carry a compact umbrella or light waterproof. Layer up so you can shed a jumper when the sun punches through. For the school run, leave five extra minutes on days with forecast showers; surface water will slow traffic. Check weekend events early on the day, as a dry morning can give way to a wet afternoon once a front arrives from the west.
Gardeners should expect mixed fortunes. Fresh showers will help lawns recover after the summer heat, but containers may still need watering between bands of rain. Clear leaves from gutters now; early-season downpours can overwhelm blocked drainage. If you are heading to the coast, watch the forecast closely. A breezy afternoon can build choppy seas and make headlands feel several degrees cooler than inland parks.
Short windows of warmth and sunshine will open up between rain bands. When they do, they will feel pleasant rather than hot.
Why the pattern may feel different after summer
Early September often marks a transition. After months when heat dominated headlines—four heatwaves in all this summer—the atmosphere tends to shift. Cooler Atlantic air interacts with lingering warmth at the surface, which encourages showers and the odd thunderstorm. The jet stream’s track steers systems across the British Isles, bringing alternating dry and wet spells. That rhythm, rather than prolonged heat, characterises the first half of the month in many years.
Climatologically, southern England often sits near 20C by day in early September, with the north several degrees lower. Nights draw in, the sun sits lower, and UV levels ease. These changes support fresher mornings and a wider daily temperature range, especially where clouds break overnight.
Signals to watch through mid-month
Forecasters will monitor the spacing of Atlantic lows and any brief ridges of high pressure that could settle conditions for a day or two. If a ridge lingers, the southeast could see a short-lived warm spell. If the Atlantic train keeps rolling, showers stay frequent and temperatures hover near seasonal norms. Confidence on precise timing remains limited beyond a few days, so update your plans with the latest daily outlooks.
Practical checklist for readers
- Keep a lightweight waterproof and a warmer layer ready for commute and school run.
- Schedule outdoor jobs for mid-morning or early afternoon dry slots shown in daily forecasts.
- Secure garden furniture before windier spells and clear gutters to handle short, sharp downpours.
- If you are sensitive to weather swings, plan hydration and rest on thundery, humid days.
- Drivers: watch for spray and slick surfaces during bursts of heavy rain, especially in the west.
A note on the term ‘indian summer’
People often use “Indian summer” to describe a warm, settled spell in autumn. In the UK, it usually refers to fine weather after the first cool snap of the season, more typical from late September into October. A brief warm day or two in early September does not fit the classic picture. The signal right now leans towards short warm interludes rather than a lengthy settled phase.
If you are planning ahead
Consider flexible plans for outdoor gatherings during 4–13 September, with a fallback under cover. Sports fixtures may need pitch inspections after overnight showers. Campers should pick sites with good drainage and bring a sturdy groundsheet. City breaks will benefit from the fresher feel; museum and market days pair well with showery forecasts. Keep an eye on local updates each morning to take advantage of the better spells as they pop up.
So basically no 30C and mostly 18–22C with showers—does that mean Scotland stays in the mid-teens?
Another “changeable” forecast… feels like a cop-out. Can anyone pin down if the southeast actually gets a dry weeked?